Will the price of battery cabinets drop

Around the beginning of this year, BloombergNEF (BNEF) released its annual Battery Storage System Cost Survey, which found that global average turnkey energy storage system prices had fallen 40% from 2023 numbers to US$165/kWh in 2024.

There are two main drivers. One is technological innovation. We're seeing multiple new battery products that have been launched that feature about 30% higher energy density and lower cost. The second driver is a continued downturn in battery metal prices. That includes lithium and cobalt, and nearly 60% of the cost of batteries is from metals.

That includes lithium and cobalt, and nearly 60% of the cost of batteries is from metals. When we talk about the battery from, let's say, 2023 to all the way to 2030, roughly over 40% of the decline is just coming from lower commodity costs, because we had a lot of green inflation during 2020 to 2023. The level of those metal prices was very high.

Our researchers forecast that average battery prices could fall towards $80/kWh by 2026, amounting to a drop of almost 50% from 2023, a level at which battery electric vehicles would achieve ownership cost parity with gasoline-fueled cars in the US on an unsubsidized basis. Source: Company data, Wood Mackenzie, SNE Research, Goldman Sachs Research

In early summer 2023, publicly available prices ranged from 0.8 to 0.9 RMB/Wh ($0.11 to $0.13 USD/Wh), or about $110 to 130/kWh. Pricing initially fell by about a third by the end of summer 2023. Now, as reported by CnEVPost, large EV battery buyers are acquiring cells at 0.4 RMB/Wh, representing a price decline of 50%to 56%.

Global average battery prices declined from $153 per kilowatt-hour (kWh) in 2022 to $149 in 2023, and they're projected by Goldman Sachs Research to fall to $111 by the close of this year.